Delta Planning Singapore+Manila Flights: An Uphill Battle

Intro

I've gotta be honest, everyone seems to say Delta is "above United" and seems to be the superior airline in the United States. While there is merit to that argument, United has long been the dominating force in Asia, and that's for a reason. So when you hear that Delta is planning flights to Singapore and Manila, I'd be surprised if these end up profitable.

The Details

Delta executives have recently announced that the airline plans on expanding its network into Asia, after European destinations are basically at its limit. Obviously, this all comes down to the future deliveries of their A350s (9 and 1000), but it seems like these routes will go ahead.

So, what are we looking at? Delta wants to fly to both Singapore and Manila, as well as looking to serve Asia from New York (presumably Seoul). However, there are a few issues.

Delta is planning an interesting expansion

Let's talk about Seoul here, and SE Asia next. The issue for Delta is that in order for them to operate flights to Asia from New York, they would need an A350 base in New York. One issue. They don't have one as of now. The 339Neo doesn't quite have the range, so Delta will have to shift in the 359/350-1000 in order to make this work.

However, if they do, I could see the route doing well to Incheon.

Singapore+Manila

Let me just get this out of the way by saying that there is no timeline for when Delta plans to launch these flights, and nobody knows what base these will operate out of. My guess would be LAX, due to the lack of competition to Manila, and the high demand to Singapore.

But here is the thing. When it comes to Singapore, Delta is going to have an extremely difficult time with any connecting traffic. SE Asia is dominated by Star Alliance, so all connectivity goes to United. And with UA serving 2x daily flights out of SFO (compared to 1x daily, presumably for DL), why would someone choose DL over SQ/UA? If Delta wants to compete in this market, they are going to need to codeshare for connecting flights, because I don't believe the market is there for point-to-point.

Now for Manila, which is by far the worst idea of them all. Sure, Singapore has the chance of at least breaking even, but Manila is another *A/OW fortress (minus PAL). There must be fewer than 10 daily Skyteam routes into this country, and I understand that cargo is a big asset on this route; I still believe that this route will not break even.

So, all in all, New York to Seoul would be smart, Singapore is a bit of a gamble, which is more directed towards operating this prestige route, but Manila is just going to burn through cash.

Final Thoughts

Delta seems to be wrapped up when it comes to expanding in Europe, and has now set its sights on expanding more into Asia. With DL already announcing they will serve Hong Kong from LA, they are now looking at Manila and Singapore. Personally, I don't see these routes doing as well as some others might, as it is extremely difficult to make money on ultra-long haul flights, but I would love to hear your reasoning if you disagree.