The future flagship of THAI, the 777-9X or A350-1000?

Introduction

The next decade will be a time of major transformation for THAI, as the airline is expected to have a fleet of over 150 aircraft by the early 2030s, with the Boeing 787 playing a key role in this growth. With over 40 of both the -9 and -10 variants on order, this is expected to be the main backbone of the airline's fleet from 2027 onwards.

While the 787 is an extremely capable aircraft, this leaves a major gap for the airline still as it lacks a future plan currently for a replacement of its current flagship aircraft, the 777-300ER. The airline has stated previously that it is still in the research phase of this plan and is not in a hurry yet as from 2027 onwards, the current 777-300ERs are expected to be given a new lease of life with a nose to tail retrofitting plan of 14 aircraft.

In this post, I'll go into detail about which aircraft is most likely to replace the 777-300ER and when can we possibly expect to see a 777-300ER replacement enter the fleet.

The 777-9X is currently speculated to be the most likely replacement for the airline's fleet of 17 777-300ERs

The details

In the coming years, we can expect the a lot of changes to the airline's long-haul / widebody fleet. Currently, the main backbone of the long-haul fleet is split between the Airbus A350-900, of which the airline has 23 and the Boeing 777-300ER which the airline has 17. Currently with just 10 Boeing 787s in operation, this is a much smaller portion of the fleet, however, from 2027 onwards, we can expect that to change.

The Boeing 787 is expected to be the future backbone of the fleet, but there is most likely a need for a larger aircraft to compliment the 787 also

The airline has over 40 787-9s and 787-10s on order and will soon expect this to be the backbone of the widebody fleet, however the airline is currently lacking a replacement for its flagship 777-300ER. These aircraft were mainly delivered between 2012-2016 and are expected to start leaving the from around 2032 onwards as the oldest frames reach 20 years of age.

Some might say the airline does not need a large flagship anymore but I believe that it does, and by the looks of it, so does TG upper management. The airline operates a lot of routes where it can easily fill an aircraft like the 777-300ER all year round, such as Frankfurt, Paris, Zurich, Tokyo, Copenhagen and London. So I think it would be stupid of the airline to not consider a new flagship as the 787-9/10 may be too small of an aircraft for some of its flagship routes.

The 777-300ER is the current flagship of the fleet but are expected to be phased out within the next decade

The options: 777X or A350-1000?

Over the last couple of years, senior management at THAI have stated that they are in the midst of a case study to figure out which aircraft would be the most suitable 77W replacement. The study is between the Boeing 777-9X or the Airbus A350-1000. Both the largest widebodies that each manufacturer currently has to offer. The airline has mentioned that it would most like order around 20 aircraft, to replace the outgoing 17 Boeing 777s and to accommodate future growth. There are different reasons as to why both aircraft would work for the airline, although I personally believe one of these aircraft has a bigger chance than the other.

Let's start with the A350-1000, over the years, since its introduction in 2018, it has proven itself to be a highly capable aircraft, receiving more and more orders each year from major airlines around the world. The aircraft would also work within the Thai Airways fleet as it would compliment the existing fleet of A350-900s, with no need to re-train pilots as the most expected entry date for a 777-300ER replacement is 2032, the airline is expected to still be operating a fleet of 17 Airbus A350-900s by then.

On the other hand, the 777-9X may pose more a risk, as of today, it is now nearly 6 years behind schedule and launch customer, Emirates is not expecting its first aircraft now until 2027. While this may not be an issue for THAI, with an expected EIS of 2032 for the 77W replacement, the aircraft is still very much unproven, although many airlines do seem to have faith that Boeing can pull it together with the 777X as like the A350-1000, the order book seems to get larger each year.

While THAI is happy with its existing A350s, it has made it clear that it is not happy with the aircraft's Rolls Royce engines, owing to issues with the 787 engines and delays in spare parts for A350 engine maintenance

Personally, I believe the 777X is the most like contender here for the airline's new flagship. The airline has been in a long dispute with Rolls Royce over the issues with its 787 engines, seeing a half of the 787-8 currently grounded due to this issue. It is the reason why for its new 787 orders, the airline has made the switch to GE. It also mentioned recently that delays in spare parts for A350-900 engines have meant that aircraft have had to be grounded longer during routine maintenance and was ultimately part of the reason why the Boeing 787 was chosen over the Airbus A350 for the airline's future.

On top of that, when the 787 order was made, it included an option for an additional 40 aircraft, with the option to convert these into 777X orders. So this makes me think while the airline is still weighing up its options, the 777X is by far, the lead contender for being the future flagship of the fleet.

Conclusion

For a while now THAI has been deciding on what its future flagship will be, between the A350-1000 or the 777X. I believe we are still a few years away from an order being made, with 2027 as a potential estimate for when the airline will announce an order for the 777-300ER replacement.

While both aircraft should be great for the fleet, it does seem like the airline is leaning more towards the 777X for various reasons. So I think we can most likely expect an order of at least 20 aircraft to be announced in the coming years.